Fisher effect: An empirical re-examination in case of India

Abstract

This study examines the Fisher's hypothesis by utilizing the dataset on India's macroeconomic variables with the objective to check whether long-run empirical relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation expectation exists. To this end, study is conducted on monthly data from Jan-1993 to Mar-2015 by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag model or bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001). The bounds testing is applied to analyze the co-integration and short-and long-run relationship among variables, for a different combination of the Fisher hypothesis. The present study concludes the existence of a long-run relationship between Treasury bill and expected inflation (estimated by WPI), with a long-run coefficient equal to 0.54, implying partial Fisher effect. While the long-run relationship does not exist between Treasury bill and expected inflation (estimated by CPI). Similarly, long-run relationship although not of one to one in nature, between call money rate and expected inflation (estimated by WPI), is found with a coefficient equal to 0.51; but not for any another combination. The implication of the result shows that the market interest rate is a good indicator of inflationary expectations (i.e. WPI). And the conduct of monetary policy is responsible for favoring the partial Fisher's effect in India.