Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation in India

Abstract

In this article, the relationship between international prices of primary commodities and domestic inflation in India has been explored empirically for the period 1994 to 2007. For this purpose a commodity price index with international price quotations and domestic WPI weights has been constructed. The empirical results show that cointegration between international and domestic prices has grown stronger in the period since 2000. The co-movement is found at both aggregate indices as also the sub-groups viz. fuel and manufactured products. While carrying out this analysis, it was found that it is necessary to use an appropriate index, in order to capture the country-specific exposure, rather than using the aggregate indices published by international agencies, whose coverage and weights may not represent the risks and exposures of specific countries.